Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinals

All Chicago White Sox predictions · All St. Louis Cardinals predictions

MLB · Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 2:16 PM · Final: 1-3

The model's call
Chicago White Sox to win
Model confidence 51.6%
Books consensus 51.6%
Result St. Louis Cardinals won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Chicago White SoxSt. Louis Cardinals
BetMGM -118 -102
BetRivers -124 +105
DraftKings -117 -103
ESPN BET -120 +100
Fanatics -120 +100
FanDuel -116 -102
Hard Rock Bet -115 -105
Caesars -115 -105

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
White Sox −1.5
priced 40.1% to cover · 8 books
St. Louis Cardinals covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 8.5
priced 52.2% over · 8 books
opened 8
Under 8.5 (4 scored)
Spread by book White SoxCardinals
BetMGM −1.5 +140 +1.5 -170
BetRivers −1.5 +128 +1.5 -157
DraftKings −1.5 +141 +1.5 -171
ESPN BET −1.5 +140 +1.5 -165
Fanatics −1.5 +135 +1.5 -165
FanDuel −1.5 +142 +1.5 -172
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +135 +1.5 -165
Caesars −1.5 +140 +1.5 -165
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 8.5 -120 8.5 +100
BetRivers 8.5 -122 8.5 +100
DraftKings 8.5 -120 8.5 -101
ESPN BET 8.5 -120 8.5 +100
Fanatics 8.5 -120 8.5 +100
FanDuel 8.5 -122 8.5 +100
Hard Rock Bet 8.5 -120 8.5 +100
Caesars 8.5 -120 8.5 +100

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Chicago White SoxSt. Louis Cardinals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 51.6% 48.4%
Best book price incl. vig 53.5% 48.8%
Kalshi contract price 52.0% 48.0%
Polymarket contract price 51.5% 48.5%
Markets average 51.8% 48.2%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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