San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies
All San Diego Padres predictions · All Colorado Rockies predictions
MLB · Monday, September 14, 2026 · 8:41 PM · Final: 8-7
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | San Diego Padres | Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -220 | +180 |
| BetRivers | -205 | +170 |
| DraftKings | -207 | +169 |
| ESPN BET | -215 | +180 |
| Fanatics | -225 | +185 |
| FanDuel | -220 | +184 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -220 | +180 |
| Caesars | -225 | +185 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Padres | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −2.5 +105 | +2.5 -130 |
| BetRivers | −2 -110 | +2 -110 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 -136 | +1.5 +113 |
| ESPN BET | −2.5 +110 | +2.5 -130 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 -145 | +1.5 +120 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 -146 | +1.5 +122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −2.5 +100 | +2.5 -120 |
| Caesars | −1.5 -160 | +1.5 +135 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 11 -120 | 11 +100 |
| BetRivers | 11.5 -103 | 11.5 -120 |
| DraftKings | 11 -119 | 11 -101 |
| ESPN BET | 11.5 +110 | 11.5 -130 |
| Fanatics | 11 -115 | 11 -105 |
| FanDuel | 11.5 +102 | 11.5 -124 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 11.5 +105 | 11.5 -130 |
| Caesars | 11 -120 | 11 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Diego Padres | Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 65.8% | 34.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 67.2% | 35.1% |
| Kalshi contract price | 66.8% | 33.2% |
| Polymarket contract price | 67.5% | 32.5% |
| Markets average | 67.1% | 32.9% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.