Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks
All Miami Marlins predictions · All Arizona Diamondbacks predictions
MLB · Tuesday, September 15, 2026 · 9:41 PM · Final: 4-2
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Miami Marlins | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +135 | -165 |
| BetRivers | +133 | -162 |
| DraftKings | +128 | -155 |
| ESPN BET | +135 | -155 |
| Fanatics | +130 | -155 |
| FanDuel | +132 | -156 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +130 | -155 |
| Caesars | +143 | -170 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Marlins | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -155 | −1.5 +125 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -155 | −1.5 +128 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -165 | −1.5 +136 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -160 | −1.5 +135 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -165 | −1.5 +135 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -162 | −1.5 +134 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -160 | −1.5 +135 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -160 | −1.5 +135 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 -112 | 8.5 -109 |
| DraftKings | 8.5 -122 | 8.5 +101 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
| Fanatics | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 -102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
| Caesars | 8.5 -125 | 8.5 +105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Miami Marlins | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 41.3% | 58.7% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 41.2% | 60.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| Markets average | 40.5% | 59.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.