San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies
All San Diego Padres predictions · All Colorado Rockies predictions
MLB · Tuesday, September 15, 2026 · 8:39 PM · Final: 3-9
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | San Diego Padres | Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -190 | +155 |
| BetRivers | -200 | +163 |
| DraftKings | -200 | +164 |
| ESPN BET | -195 | +165 |
| Fanatics | -200 | +165 |
| FanDuel | -196 | +164 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -200 | +165 |
| Caesars | -190 | +158 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Padres | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 -135 | +1.5 +110 |
| BetRivers | −2 -106 | +2 -114 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 -130 | +1.5 +108 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 -130 | +1.5 +110 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 -125 | +1.5 +105 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 -134 | +1.5 +112 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 -125 | +1.5 +105 |
| Caesars | −1.5 -130 | +1.5 +110 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 11 -118 | 11 -102 |
| BetRivers | 11 -121 | 11 -117 |
| DraftKings | 11 -116 | 11 -103 |
| ESPN BET | 11.5 +110 | 11.5 -130 |
| Fanatics | 11 -110 | 11 -110 |
| FanDuel | 11.5 +108 | 11.5 -132 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 11.5 +105 | 11.5 -130 |
| Caesars | 11 -120 | 11 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Diego Padres | Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 63.7% | 36.3% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 65.5% | 37.7% |
| Kalshi contract price | 63.5% | 36.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 64.5% | 35.5% |
| Markets average | 64.0% | 36.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.