Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers
MLB · Friday, July 17, 2026 · 7:41 PM · Final: 1-2
The model's call
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Model confidence 58.2%
Books consensus 58.2%
Result Milwaukee Brewers won
model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Miami Marlins | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| BetRivers | +132 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +129 | -156 |
| ESPN BET | +130 | -150 |
| Fanatics | +125 | -150 |
| FanDuel | +130 | -154 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +130 | -155 |
| Caesars | +130 | -155 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Miami Marlins | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 41.8% | 58.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 43.1% | 60.0% |
| Polymarket contract price | 41.5% | 58.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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