Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks
All Miami Marlins predictions · All Arizona Diamondbacks predictions
MLB · Wednesday, September 16, 2026 · 9:41 PM · Final: 4-3
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Miami Marlins | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +115 | -140 |
| BetRivers | +114 | -136 |
| DraftKings | +119 | -143 |
| ESPN BET | +120 | -140 |
| Fanatics | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +116 | -136 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +115 | -140 |
| Caesars | +122 | -145 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Marlins | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -185 | −1.5 +150 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -177 | −1.5 +143 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -184 | −1.5 +151 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +150 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -185 | −1.5 +150 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -182 | −1.5 +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +150 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -178 | −1.5 +150 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
| BetRivers | 9 -120 | 9 -120 |
| DraftKings | 9 +101 | 9 -122 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -125 | 8.5 +105 |
| Fanatics | 9 -105 | 9 -115 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -132 | 8.5 +108 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -125 | 8.5 +105 |
| Caesars | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Miami Marlins | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 44.4% | 55.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 45.0% | 57.6% |
| Kalshi contract price | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| Markets average | 44.0% | 56.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.