San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies
All San Diego Padres predictions · All Colorado Rockies predictions
MLB · Thursday, September 17, 2026 · 3:10 PM · Final: 9-2
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | San Diego Padres | Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -200 | +165 |
| BetRivers | -186 | +155 |
| DraftKings | -198 | +162 |
| ESPN BET | -195 | +165 |
| Fanatics | -200 | +165 |
| FanDuel | -200 | +168 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -200 | +165 |
| Caesars | -205 | +170 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Padres | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −2.5 +110 | +2.5 -145 |
| BetRivers | −2 +100 | +2 -118 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 -129 | +1.5 +107 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 -130 | +1.5 +110 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 -125 | +1.5 +105 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 -134 | +1.5 +112 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 -130 | +1.5 +110 |
| Caesars | −1.5 -129 | +1.5 +110 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 10.5 -118 | 10.5 -102 |
| BetRivers | 11 -122 | 11 -117 |
| DraftKings | 11 +100 | 11 -120 |
| ESPN BET | 10.5 -120 | 10.5 +100 |
| Fanatics | 10.5 -120 | 10.5 +100 |
| FanDuel | 10.5 -120 | 10.5 -102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 10.5 -120 | 10.5 +100 |
| Caesars | 10.5 -121 | 10.5 +102 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Diego Padres | Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 63.9% | 36.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 65.0% | 37.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 65.1% | 34.8% |
| Polymarket contract price | 64.5% | 35.4% |
| Markets average | 64.8% | 35.1% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.