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San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies

All San Diego Padres predictions · All Colorado Rockies predictions

MLB · Thursday, September 17, 2026 · 3:10 PM

The model's call
San Diego Padres to win
Model confidence 60.2%
Books consensus 60.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book San Diego PadresColorado Rockies
BetMGM -170 +140
DraftKings -171 +141
Fanatics -175 +145
FanDuel -158 +134
Hard Rock Bet -170 +140

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue San Diego PadresColorado Rockies
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 60.2% 39.8%
Best book price incl. vig 61.2% 40.8%
Kalshi contract price 61.9% 38.1%
Polymarket contract price 61.4% 38.7%
Markets average 61.7% 38.4%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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