Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres
All Miami Marlins predictions · All San Diego Padres predictions
MLB · Friday, September 18, 2026 · 9:41 PM · Final: 2-8
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Miami Marlins | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +170 | -210 |
| BetRivers | +170 | -210 |
| DraftKings | +169 | -206 |
| ESPN BET | +170 | -200 |
| Fanatics | +170 | -205 |
| FanDuel | +172 | -205 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +170 | -210 |
| Caesars | +168 | -200 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Marlins | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -125 | −1.5 +105 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -127 | −1.5 +105 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -130 | −1.5 +108 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -130 | −1.5 +110 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -125 | −1.5 +105 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -125 | −1.5 +104 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -125 | −1.5 +105 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -129 | −1.5 +110 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -115 |
| BetRivers | 7.5 -104 | 7.5 -118 |
| DraftKings | 7.5 -107 | 7.5 -112 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -115 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 -110 |
| Caesars | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Miami Marlins | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 35.4% | 64.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 36.8% | 66.7% |
| Kalshi contract price | 35.5% | 64.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 34.5% | 65.5% |
| Markets average | 35.0% | 65.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.