Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels

All Detroit Tigers predictions · All Los Angeles Angels predictions

MLB · Friday, July 17, 2026 · 9:39 PM · Final: 2-1

The model's call
Detroit Tigers to win
Model confidence 50.8%
Books consensus 50.8%
Result Detroit Tigers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Detroit TigersLos Angeles Angels
BetMGM -115 -105
BetRivers -108 -106
DraftKings -112 -107
ESPN BET -115 -105
Fanatics -110 -110
FanDuel -106 -110
Hard Rock Bet -115 -105
Caesars -115 -105

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Tigers −1.5
priced 39.0% to cover · 8 books
Los Angeles Angels covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 8.5
priced 48.9% over · 8 books
Under 8.5 (3 scored)
Spread by book TigersAngels
BetMGM −1.5 +145 +1.5 -175
BetRivers −1.5 +150 +1.5 -182
DraftKings −1.5 +144 +1.5 -175
ESPN BET −1.5 +150 +1.5 -180
Fanatics −1.5 +150 +1.5 -180
FanDuel −1.5 +146 +1.5 -178
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +145 +1.5 -175
Caesars −1.5 +143 +1.5 -170
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 8.5 -105 8.5 -115
BetRivers 8.5 -110 8.5 -109
DraftKings 8.5 -107 8.5 -112
ESPN BET 8.5 -105 8.5 -115
Fanatics 8.5 -105 8.5 -115
FanDuel 8.5 -105 8.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 8.5 -105 8.5 -115
Caesars 8.5 -105 8.5 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Detroit TigersLos Angeles Angels
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 50.8% 49.2%
Best book price incl. vig 51.5% 51.2%
Polymarket contract price 100.0% 0.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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