Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox

All Detroit Tigers predictions · All Chicago White Sox predictions

MLB · Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 6:05 PM · Final: 1-8

The model's call
Chicago White Sox to win
Model confidence 52.0%
Books consensus 52.0%
Result Chicago White Sox won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Detroit TigersChicago White Sox
BetMGM +100 -120
BetRivers -109 -109
DraftKings -101 -120
ESPN BET +102 -115
Fanatics +100 -120
FanDuel +100 -118
Hard Rock Bet +100 -120
Caesars -103 -115

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Tigers −1.5
priced 36.2% to cover · 8 books
Chicago White Sox covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 8
priced 51.1% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened 7.5
Over 8 (9 scored)
Spread by book TigersWhite Sox
BetMGM −1.5 +165 +1.5 -200
BetRivers −1.5 +150 +1.5 -190
DraftKings −1.5 +163 +1.5 -199
ESPN BET −1.5 +165 +1.5 -200
Fanatics −1.5 +160 +1.5 -200
FanDuel −1.5 +168 +1.5 -205
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +165 +1.5 -195
Caesars −1.5 +169 +1.5 -200
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 8 -115 8 -105
BetRivers 8 -120 8 -118
DraftKings 8 -115 8 -105
ESPN BET 8.5 +105 8.5 -125
Fanatics 8 -115 8 -105
FanDuel 7.5 -134 7.5 +110
Hard Rock Bet 8.5 +100 8.5 -120
Caesars 8.5 +104 8.5 -122

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Detroit TigersChicago White Sox
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 48.0% 52.0%
Best book price incl. vig 49.5% 52.2%
Kalshi contract price 47.7% 52.3%
Polymarket contract price 47.5% 52.5%
Markets average 47.6% 52.4%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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