Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels

All Minnesota Twins predictions · All Los Angeles Angels predictions

MLB · Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 4:10 PM · Final: 8-0

The model's call
Minnesota Twins to win
Model confidence 51.1%
Books consensus 51.1%
Result Minnesota Twins won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Minnesota TwinsLos Angeles Angels
BetMGM -110 -110
BetRivers -115 -104
DraftKings -111 -109
ESPN BET -125 +105
Fanatics -115 -105
FanDuel -118 +100
Hard Rock Bet -115 -105
Caesars -115 -102

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Twins −1.5
priced 38.9% to cover · 8 books
Minnesota Twins covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 8.5
priced 46.7% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
Under 8.5 (8 scored)
Spread by book TwinsAngels
BetMGM −1.5 +145 +1.5 -180
BetRivers −1.5 +145 +1.5 -180
DraftKings −1.5 +149 +1.5 -182
ESPN BET −1.5 +145 +1.5 -175
Fanatics −1.5 +145 +1.5 -180
FanDuel −1.5 +140 +1.5 -170
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +140 +1.5 -170
Caesars −1.5 +148 +1.5 -173
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 8 -115 8 -105
BetRivers 7.5 -114 7.5 -107
DraftKings 8 -112 8 -108
ESPN BET 8.5 +105 8.5 -125
Fanatics 8 -115 8 -105
FanDuel 8.5 +106 8.5 -130
Hard Rock Bet 8.5 +105 8.5 -125
Caesars 8.5 +106 8.5 -125

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Minnesota TwinsLos Angeles Angels
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 51.1% 48.9%
Best book price incl. vig 52.4% 48.8%
Kalshi contract price 51.0% 49.0%
Polymarket contract price 50.5% 49.5%
Markets average 50.8% 49.2%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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