Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres
All Miami Marlins predictions · All San Diego Padres predictions
MLB · Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 4:11 PM · Final: 3-7
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Miami Marlins | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +125 | -155 |
| BetRivers | +133 | -159 |
| DraftKings | +129 | -156 |
| ESPN BET | +125 | -145 |
| Fanatics | +130 | -155 |
| FanDuel | +130 | -154 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +125 | -150 |
| Caesars | +128 | -150 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Marlins | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -170 | −1.5 +140 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -167 | −1.5 +135 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -175 | −1.5 +144 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -175 | −1.5 +145 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -170 | −1.5 +140 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -182 | −1.5 +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -175 | −1.5 +145 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -173 | −1.5 +147 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -115 | 8 -105 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 -104 | 8.5 -117 |
| DraftKings | 8 -113 | 8 -106 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 +105 | 8.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 +102 | 8.5 -124 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 +105 | 8.5 -125 |
| Caesars | 8.5 +106 | 8.5 -124 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Miami Marlins | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 42.9% | 59.2% |
| Kalshi contract price | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| Markets average | 41.5% | 58.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.