San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
All San Francisco Giants predictions · All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions
MLB · Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 4:11 PM
The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 70.1%
Books consensus 70.1%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | San Francisco Giants | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +220 | -275 |
| BetRivers | +220 | -275 |
| DraftKings | +224 | -280 |
| ESPN BET | +225 | -275 |
| Fanatics | +220 | -275 |
| FanDuel | +220 | -270 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +220 | -275 |
| Caesars | +225 | -275 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | San Francisco Giants | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 29.9% | 70.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 30.8% | 73.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 28.5% | 71.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 27.5% | 72.5% |
| Markets average | 28.0% | 72.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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