Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giants
All Minnesota Twins predictions · All San Francisco Giants predictions
MLB · Monday, September 21, 2026 · 9:46 PM · Final: 2-5
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Minnesota Twins | San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -135 | +110 |
| BetRivers | -130 | +108 |
| DraftKings | -132 | +109 |
| ESPN BET | -130 | +110 |
| Fanatics | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -130 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -130 | +110 |
| Caesars | -135 | +112 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Twins | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +125 | +1.5 -155 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +130 | +1.5 -159 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +129 | +1.5 -156 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +135 | +1.5 -160 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +130 | +1.5 -160 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +130 | +1.5 -156 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +130 | +1.5 -155 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +135 | +1.5 -159 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| BetRivers | 8 -114 | 8 -125 |
| DraftKings | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -130 | 7.5 +110 |
| Fanatics | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 +104 | 8.5 -128 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 +105 | 8.5 -125 |
| Caesars | 8.5 +108 | 8.5 -129 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Minnesota Twins | San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 56.5% | 47.2% |
| Kalshi contract price | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| Markets average | 53.5% | 46.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.