San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
All San Diego Padres predictions · All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions
MLB · Tuesday, September 22, 2026 · 10:11 PM
The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 52.5%
Books consensus 52.5%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | San Diego Padres | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +101 | -122 |
| ESPN BET | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +102 | -120 |
| Caesars | +103 | -121 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | San Diego Padres | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 48.8% | 54.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 47.0% | 53.0% |
| Polymarket contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Markets average | 46.8% | 53.2% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts
involve risk; this is not investment advice.