Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
All Arizona Diamondbacks predictions · All Colorado Rockies predictions
MLB · Wednesday, September 23, 2026 · 8:41 PM
The model's call
Arizona Diamondbacks to win
Model confidence 58.8%
Books consensus 58.8%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Arizona Diamondbacks | Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Fanatics | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -158 | +134 |
| Caesars | -157 | +134 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Arizona Diamondbacks | Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 58.8% | 41.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 60.8% | 42.7% |
| Kalshi contract price | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| Markets average | 60.5% | 39.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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