San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
All San Diego Padres predictions · All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions
MLB · Wednesday, September 23, 2026 · 10:11 PM · Final: 5-1
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | San Diego Padres | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +185 | -225 |
| BetRivers | +200 | -245 |
| DraftKings | +188 | -231 |
| ESPN BET | +190 | -225 |
| Fanatics | +185 | -225 |
| FanDuel | +188 | -225 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +185 | -225 |
| Caesars | +182 | -218 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Padres | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -110 | −1.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -105 | −1.5 -117 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -111 | −1.5 -109 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -115 | −1.5 -105 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -110 | −1.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -118 | −1.5 -102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -115 | −1.5 -105 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -115 | −1.5 -103 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -115 | 8 -105 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -117 |
| DraftKings | 8 -114 | 8 -105 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 +105 | 8.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | 8 -115 | 8 -105 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 +104 | 8.5 -128 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 +105 | 8.5 -125 |
| Caesars | 8.5 +103 | 8.5 -121 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Diego Padres | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 33.5% | 66.5% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 33.3% | 68.6% |
| Kalshi contract price | 32.5% | 67.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 33.5% | 66.5% |
| Markets average | 33.0% | 67.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.