Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giants

All Minnesota Twins predictions · All San Francisco Giants predictions

MLB · Wednesday, September 23, 2026 · 3:46 PM

The model's call
Minnesota Twins to win
Model confidence 58.0%
Books consensus 58.0%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Minnesota TwinsSan Francisco Giants
BetMGM -155 +125
BetRivers -165 +135
DraftKings -154 +128
ESPN BET -150 +130
Fanatics -150 +125
FanDuel -154 +130
Hard Rock Bet -155 +125
Caesars -160 +135

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Minnesota TwinsSan Francisco Giants
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 58.0% 42.0%
Best book price incl. vig 60.0% 42.6%
Kalshi contract price 58.5% 41.5%
Polymarket contract price 58.5% 41.5%
Markets average 58.5% 41.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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