Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals

All Chicago White Sox predictions · All Kansas City Royals predictions

MLB · Thursday, September 24, 2026 · 2:11 PM · Final: 9-1

The model's call
Chicago White Sox to win
Model confidence 55.6%
Books consensus 55.6%
Result Chicago White Sox won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Chicago White SoxKansas City Royals
BetMGM -140 +115
BetRivers -139 +118
DraftKings -142 +118
ESPN BET -140 +120
Fanatics -140 +115
FanDuel -136 +116
Hard Rock Bet -135 +115
Caesars -136 +116

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Chicago White SoxKansas City Royals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 55.6% 44.4%
Best book price incl. vig 57.4% 45.5%
Kalshi contract price 56.5% 43.5%
Polymarket contract price 55.5% 44.5%
Markets average 56.0% 44.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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