St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks
All St. Louis Cardinals predictions · All Arizona Diamondbacks predictions
MLB · Saturday, July 18, 2026 · 4:11 PM · Final: 3-5
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | St. Louis Cardinals | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | +100 | -120 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Cardinals | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -125 | 8.5 +105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | St. Louis Cardinals | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 50.0% | 54.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Markets average | 47.5% | 52.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.