St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks

MLB · Saturday, July 18, 2026 · 4:11 PM

The model's call

Arizona Diamondbacks to win

Model confidence 52.2%

Books consensus 52.2%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	St. Louis Cardinals	Arizona Diamondbacks
DraftKings	+100	-120
ESPN BET	+100	-120
Fanatics	+100	-120
FanDuel	-102	-116
Caesars	+100	-120

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	St. Louis Cardinals	Arizona Diamondbacks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	47.8%	52.2%
Best book price incl. vig	50.0%	53.7%
Polymarket contract price	47.5%	52.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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