Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox

All Colorado Rockies predictions · All Chicago White Sox predictions

MLB · Friday, September 25, 2026 · 7:42 PM · Final: 1-6

The model's call
Chicago White Sox to win
Model confidence 68.1%
Books consensus 68.1%
Result Chicago White Sox won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Colorado RockiesChicago White Sox
BetMGM +200 -250
BetRivers +180 -225
DraftKings +200 -247
ESPN BET +210 -250
Fanatics +200 -245
FanDuel +205 -250
Hard Rock Bet +195 -250
Caesars +200 -245

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
White Sox −1.5
priced 51.0% to cover · 8 books
Chicago White Sox covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 8
priced 50.3% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 8.5
Under 8 (7 scored)
Spread by book RockiesWhite Sox
BetMGM +1.5 -105 −1.5 -115
BetRivers +1.5 -103 −1.5 -121
DraftKings +1.5 -106 −1.5 -114
ESPN BET +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
Fanatics +1.5 -105 −1.5 -115
FanDuel +1.5 -105 −1.5 -114
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -105 −1.5 -115
Caesars +1.5 -106 −1.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 8 -115 8 -105
BetRivers 8 -121 8 -118
DraftKings 8 -112 8 -107
ESPN BET 8.5 +105 8.5 -125
Fanatics 8 -110 8 -110
FanDuel 8.5 -105 8.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 8.5 +100 8.5 -120
Caesars 8 -110 8 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Colorado RockiesChicago White Sox
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 31.9% 68.1%
Best book price incl. vig 32.3% 69.2%
Kalshi contract price 31.5% 68.5%
Polymarket contract price 31.5% 68.5%
Markets average 31.5% 68.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record