Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
All Arizona Diamondbacks predictions · All San Diego Padres predictions
MLB · Friday, September 25, 2026 · 9:41 PM · Final: 11-4
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Arizona Diamondbacks | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -102 | -118 |
| BetRivers | +107 | -129 |
| DraftKings | +104 | -126 |
| ESPN BET | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +102 | -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +103 | -121 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Diamondbacks | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +160 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -186 | −1.5 +150 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +168 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +175 | +1.5 -225 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -205 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +168 | +1.5 -205 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +170 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +168 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| BetRivers | 7.5 -118 | 7.5 -104 |
| DraftKings | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| Caesars | 7.5 -109 | 7.5 -108 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Arizona Diamondbacks | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 48.3% | 54.1% |
| Kalshi contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Markets average | 46.5% | 53.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.