Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants

All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions · All San Francisco Giants predictions

MLB · Friday, September 25, 2026 · 10:16 PM · Final: 2-0

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 73.6%
Books consensus 73.6%
Result Los Angeles Dodgers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles DodgersSan Francisco Giants
BetMGM -325 +260
BetRivers -286 +230
DraftKings -337 +264
ESPN BET -300 +250
Fanatics -330 +260
FanDuel -330 +265
Hard Rock Bet -350 +275
Caesars -335 +270

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Dodgers −2.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened Dodgers −1.5
San Francisco Giants covered +2.5
Total · closing
O/U 7.5
priced 52.0% over · 8 books
Under 7.5 (2 scored)
Spread by book DodgersGiants
BetMGM −2.5 -118 +2.5 -102
BetRivers −2.5 -109 +2.5 -112
DraftKings −1.5 -176 +1.5 +145
ESPN BET −2.5 -110 +2.5 -110
Fanatics −1.5 -185 +1.5 +150
FanDuel −1.5 -194 +1.5 +160
Hard Rock Bet −2.5 -115 +2.5 -105
Caesars −2.5 -108 +2.5 -109
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 7.5 -118 7.5 -102
BetRivers 7.5 -113 7.5 -108
DraftKings 7.5 -118 7.5 -102
ESPN BET 7.5 -115 7.5 -105
Fanatics 7.5 -120 7.5 +100
FanDuel 7.5 -122 7.5 +100
Hard Rock Bet 7.5 -120 7.5 +100
Caesars 7.5 -122 7.5 +105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles DodgersSan Francisco Giants
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 73.6% 26.4%
Best book price incl. vig 74.1% 26.7%
Kalshi contract price 74.5% 25.5%
Polymarket contract price 74.5% 25.5%
Markets average 74.5% 25.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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