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St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

All St. Louis Cardinals predictions · All Milwaukee Brewers predictions

MLB · Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 2-3

The model's call
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Model confidence 59.3%
Books consensus 59.3%
Result Milwaukee Brewers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book St. Louis CardinalsMilwaukee Brewers
BetMGM +135 -160
BetRivers +133 -159
DraftKings +134 -163
ESPN BET +135 -155
Fanatics +135 -165
FanDuel +138 -164
Hard Rock Bet +140 -165
Caesars +141 -170

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Brewers −1.5
priced 40.9% to cover · 8 books
St. Louis Cardinals covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 7.5
priced 50.0% over · 8 books
Under 7.5 (5 scored)
Spread by book CardinalsBrewers
BetMGM +1.5 -160 −1.5 +135
BetRivers +1.5 -139 −1.5 +114
DraftKings +1.5 -163 −1.5 +135
ESPN BET +1.5 -160 −1.5 +135
Fanatics +1.5 -165 −1.5 +135
FanDuel +1.5 -156 −1.5 +130
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -160 −1.5 +135
Caesars +1.5 -155 −1.5 +128
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 7.5 -110 7.5 -110
BetRivers 7.5 -114 7.5 -107
DraftKings 7.5 -105 7.5 -114
ESPN BET 7.5 -115 7.5 -105
Fanatics 7.5 -110 7.5 -110
FanDuel 7.5 -115 7.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet 7.5 -110 7.5 -110
Caesars 7.5 -109 7.5 -109

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue St. Louis CardinalsMilwaukee Brewers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 40.7% 59.3%
Best book price incl. vig 41.5% 60.8%
Kalshi contract price 40.5% 59.5%
Polymarket contract price 40.5% 59.5%
Markets average 40.5% 59.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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