Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox

All Colorado Rockies predictions · All Chicago White Sox predictions

MLB · Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 9-6

The model's call
Chicago White Sox to win
Model confidence 69.2%
Books consensus 69.2%
Result Colorado Rockies won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Colorado RockiesChicago White Sox
BetMGM +220 -275
BetRivers +205 -250
DraftKings +211 -262
ESPN BET +210 -250
Fanatics +210 -260
FanDuel +215 -260
Hard Rock Bet +200 -250
Caesars +215 -270

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
White Sox −1.5
priced 52.2% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
Colorado Rockies covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 8.5
priced 46.8% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
Over 8.5 (15 scored)
Spread by book RockiesWhite Sox
BetMGM +1.5 +100 −1.5 -120
BetRivers +2 -114 −2 -107
DraftKings +1.5 -102 −1.5 -118
ESPN BET +1.5 +100 −1.5 -120
Fanatics +1.5 +100 −1.5 -120
FanDuel +1.5 +100 −1.5 -120
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 +100 −1.5 -120
Caesars +1.5 -102 −1.5 -118
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 8 -118 8 -102
BetRivers 8 -129 8 -110
DraftKings 8 -117 8 -103
ESPN BET 8.5 +105 8.5 -125
Fanatics 8.5 +100 8.5 -120
FanDuel 8.5 +104 8.5 -128
Hard Rock Bet 8.5 +105 8.5 -125
Caesars 8.5 +108 8.5 -129

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Colorado RockiesChicago White Sox
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 30.8% 69.2%
Best book price incl. vig 31.2% 71.4%
Kalshi contract price 30.5% 69.5%
Polymarket contract price 30.5% 69.5%
Markets average 30.5% 69.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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