Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

All St. Louis Cardinals predictions · All Milwaukee Brewers predictions

MLB · Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 3:10 PM · Final: 4-6

The model's call
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Model confidence 64.7%
Books consensus 64.7%
Result Milwaukee Brewers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book St. Louis CardinalsMilwaukee Brewers
BetMGM +170 -210
BetRivers +163 -200
DraftKings +178 -218
ESPN BET +175 -210
Fanatics +175 -215
FanDuel +172 -205
Hard Rock Bet +170 -210
Caesars +173 -205

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Brewers −1.5
priced 46.8% to cover · 8 books
Milwaukee Brewers covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 7
priced 52.1% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
Over 7 (10 scored)
Spread by book CardinalsBrewers
BetMGM +1.5 -125 −1.5 +105
BetRivers +1.5 -118 −1.5 -103
DraftKings +1.5 -125 −1.5 +104
ESPN BET +1.5 -130 −1.5 +110
Fanatics +1.5 -125 −1.5 +105
FanDuel +1.5 -137 −1.5 +114
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -125 −1.5 +105
Caesars +1.5 -124 −1.5 +106
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 7 -125 7 +105
BetRivers 7 -129 7 -110
DraftKings 7 -119 7 -101
ESPN BET 7.5 +105 7.5 -125
Fanatics 7 -120 7 +100
FanDuel 7.5 +104 7.5 -128
Hard Rock Bet 7.5 +110 7.5 -135
Caesars 7.5 +114 7.5 -136

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue St. Louis CardinalsMilwaukee Brewers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 35.3% 64.7%
Best book price incl. vig 36.0% 66.7%
Kalshi contract price 34.5% 65.5%
Polymarket contract price 34.5% 65.5%
Markets average 34.5% 65.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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