Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
All Arizona Diamondbacks predictions · All San Diego Padres predictions
MLB · Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 3:11 PM · Final: 4-9
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Arizona Diamondbacks | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -155 | +130 |
| BetRivers | -150 | +125 |
| DraftKings | -156 | +129 |
| ESPN BET | -150 | +130 |
| Fanatics | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -154 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -155 | +130 |
| Caesars | -165 | +135 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Diamondbacks | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +110 | +1.5 -130 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +110 | +1.5 -134 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +109 | +1.5 -131 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +105 | +1.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +110 | +1.5 -135 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +112 | +1.5 -134 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +110 | +1.5 -130 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +112 | +1.5 -130 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -102 | 8 -118 |
| BetRivers | 8 -110 | 8 -129 |
| DraftKings | 8 -105 | 8 -115 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -125 | 7.5 +105 |
| Fanatics | 8 -105 | 8 -115 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -122 | 7.5 +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -125 | 7.5 +105 |
| Caesars | 7.5 -125 | 7.5 +106 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Arizona Diamondbacks | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 58.3% | 41.7% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 60.0% | 42.6% |
| Kalshi contract price | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| Polymarket contract price | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| Markets average | 58.9% | 41.1% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.