Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors

All Orlando Magic predictions · All Toronto Raptors predictions

NBA · Friday, October 30, 2026 · 7:40 PM

The model's call
Toronto Raptors to win
Model confidence 65.8%
Books consensus 65.8%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Orlando MagicToronto Raptors
BetMGM +180 -220
BetRivers +180 -225
DraftKings +180 -218
ESPN BET +175 -210
Fanatics +175 -215
FanDuel +176 -210
Hard Rock Bet +185 -225
Novig +194 -199
Caesars +185 -225

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Raptors −5.5
priced 50.8% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
Total
O/U 227.5
priced 49.8% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened 224.5
Spread by book MagicRaptors
BetMGM +5.5 -110 −5.5 -110
BetRivers +5.5 -107 −5.5 -114
DraftKings +5.5 -105 −5.5 -115
ESPN BET +5.5 -105 −5.5 -115
Fanatics +5.5 -105 −5.5 -115
FanDuel +5.5 -110 −5.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet +5.5 -110 −5.5 -110
Caesars +6 -115 −6 -105
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 227.5 -110 227.5 -110
BetRivers 227.5 -108 227.5 -113
DraftKings 227.5 -108 227.5 -112
ESPN BET 227.5 -110 227.5 -110
Fanatics 227 -110 227 -110
FanDuel 226.5 -115 226.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet 226.5 -115 226.5 -105
Caesars 227 -110 227 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Orlando MagicToronto Raptors
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 34.2% 65.8%
Best book price incl. vig 34.0% 66.6%
Kalshi contract price 33.8% 66.2%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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