Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels

All Detroit Tigers predictions · All Los Angeles Angels predictions

MLB · Saturday, July 18, 2026 · 10:08 PM · Final: 7-0

The model's call
Detroit Tigers to win
Model confidence 64.7%
Books consensus 64.7%
Result Detroit Tigers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Detroit TigersLos Angeles Angels
BetRivers -200 +170
ESPN BET -200 +170

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Tigers −1.5
priced 51.1% to cover · 1 book
Detroit Tigers covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 8.5
priced 46.8% over · 1 book
Under 8.5 (7 scored)
Spread by book TigersAngels
ESPN BET −1.5 -115 +1.5 -105
Total by bookOverUnder
ESPN BET 8.5 +105 8.5 -125

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Detroit TigersLos Angeles Angels
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 64.7% 35.3%
Best book price incl. vig 66.7% 37.0%
Kalshi contract price 66.5% 34.5%
Polymarket contract price 64.5% 35.5%
Markets average 65.5% 35.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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