Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels

MLB · Saturday, July 18, 2026 · 10:08 PM

The model's call

Detroit Tigers to win

Model confidence 62.8%

Books consensus 62.8%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	Detroit Tigers	Los Angeles Angels
DraftKings	-192	+157
FanDuel	-194	+162
Caesars	-190	+158

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	Detroit Tigers	Los Angeles Angels
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	62.8%	37.2%
Best book price incl. vig	65.5%	38.2%
Polymarket contract price	62.0%	38.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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