San Diego Padres at Kansas City Royals
All San Diego Padres predictions · All Kansas City Royals predictions
MLB · Saturday, July 18, 2026 · 4:11 PM · Final: 1-6
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | San Diego Padres | Kansas City Royals |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | -115 | -105 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Padres | Royals |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -165 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | 11.5 +115 | 11.5 -135 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Diego Padres | Kansas City Royals |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 50.0% | 49.9% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 53.5% | 51.2% |
| Kalshi contract price | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| Markets average | 51.0% | 49.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.