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San Diego Padres at Kansas City Royals

MLB · Saturday, July 18, 2026 · 4:11 PM

The model's call
San Diego Padres to win
Model confidence 51.4%
Books consensus 51.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book San Diego PadresKansas City Royals
BetMGM -115 -105
BetRivers -113 -104
DraftKings -118 -102
ESPN BET -120 +100
Fanatics -120 +100
FanDuel -118 +100
Hard Rock Bet -115 -105
Caesars -115 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue San Diego PadresKansas City Royals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 51.4% 48.6%
Best book price incl. vig 53.1% 50.0%
Kalshi contract price 51.5% 48.5%
Polymarket contract price 51.5% 48.5%
Markets average 51.5% 48.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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