Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers

All Milwaukee Brewers predictions · All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions

MLB · Wednesday, October 14, 2026 · 8:00 PM

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 61.2%
Books consensus 61.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Milwaukee BrewersLos Angeles Dodgers
BetMGM +145 -175
BetRivers +150 -180
DraftKings +148 -179
ESPN BET +150 -175
Fanatics +145 -175
FanDuel +150 -178
Hard Rock Bet +145 -175
Caesars +147 -173

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Dodgers −1.5
priced 42.4% to cover · 8 books
Total
O/U 7.5
priced 48.9% over · 8 books
Spread by book BrewersDodgers
BetMGM +1.5 -155 −1.5 +125
BetRivers +1.5 -141 −1.5 +117
DraftKings +1.5 -156 −1.5 +129
ESPN BET +1.5 -155 −1.5 +130
Fanatics +1.5 -150 −1.5 +125
FanDuel +1.5 -150 −1.5 +125
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -150 −1.5 +125
Caesars +1.5 -152 −1.5 +130
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 7.5 -105 7.5 -115
BetRivers 7.5 -105 7.5 -117
DraftKings 7.5 -108 7.5 -112
ESPN BET 7.5 -105 7.5 -115
Fanatics 7.5 -105 7.5 -115
FanDuel 7.5 -104 7.5 -118
Hard Rock Bet 7.5 -105 7.5 -115
Caesars 7.5 -104 7.5 -114

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Milwaukee BrewersLos Angeles Dodgers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 38.8% 61.2%
Best book price incl. vig 40.0% 63.4%
Kalshi contract price 38.5% 61.5%
Polymarket contract price 38.5% 61.5%
Markets average 38.5% 61.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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