Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Montréal Canadiens at Washington Capitals

All Montréal Canadiens predictions · All Washington Capitals predictions

NHL · Wednesday, October 14, 2026 · 7:40 PM

The model's call
Washington Capitals to win
Model confidence 54.8%
Books consensus 54.8%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Montréal CanadiensWashington Capitals
BetRivers +110 -130
DraftKings +110 -130
Fanatics +115 -140
FanDuel +118 -142
Hard Rock Bet +110 -130
Caesars +115 -136

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Capitals −1.5
priced 34.3% to cover · 5 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 50.4% over · 6 books
Spread by book CanadiensCapitals
BetRivers +1.5 -240 −1.5 +185
DraftKings +1.5 -230 −1.5 +190
Fanatics +1.5 -215 −1.5 +170
FanDuel +1.5 -196 −1.5 +158
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -230 −1.5 +175
Total by bookOverUnder
BetRivers 6.5 -120 6.5 -105
DraftKings 6.5 -115 6.5 -105
Fanatics 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
FanDuel 6.5 -106 6.5 -114
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
Caesars 6.5 -115 6.5 -107

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Montréal CanadiensWashington Capitals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 45.2% 54.8%
Best book price incl. vig 45.9% 56.5%
Kalshi contract price 45.2% 54.8%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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