Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators

All New York Islanders predictions · All Ottawa Senators predictions

NHL · Thursday, October 15, 2026 · 7:10 PM

The model's call
Ottawa Senators to win
Model confidence 59.7%
Books consensus 59.7%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book New York IslandersOttawa Senators
BetMGM +135 -160
BetRivers +133 -159
DraftKings +140 -166
Fanatics +135 -165
FanDuel +142 -172
Caesars +140 -170

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Senators −1.5
priced 38.4% to cover · 5 books
Total
O/U 5.5
priced 51.1% over · 6 books
Spread by book IslandersSenators
BetMGM +1.5 -190 −1.5 +154
BetRivers +1.5 -205 −1.5 +163
DraftKings +1.5 -180 −1.5 +150
Fanatics +1.5 -180 −1.5 +145
FanDuel +1.5 -184 −1.5 +148
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
BetRivers 5.5 -115 5.5 -108
DraftKings 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
Fanatics 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
FanDuel 5.5 -112 5.5 -108
Caesars 5.5 -117 5.5 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue New York IslandersOttawa Senators
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 40.3% 59.7%
Best book price incl. vig 41.3% 61.4%
Kalshi contract price 41.1% 58.9%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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