Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings

All Philadelphia Flyers predictions · All Detroit Red Wings predictions

NHL · Thursday, October 15, 2026 · 7:40 PM

The model's call
Detroit Red Wings to win
Model confidence 54.9%
Books consensus 54.9%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Philadelphia FlyersDetroit Red Wings
BetMGM +115 -140
BetRivers +112 -134
DraftKings +114 -135
Fanatics +110 -130
FanDuel +112 -134
Caesars +114 -134

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Red Wings −1.5
priced 34.2% to cover · 5 books
Total
O/U 5.5
priced 52.2% over · 6 books
Spread by book FlyersRed Wings
BetMGM +1.5 -220 −1.5 +180
BetRivers +1.5 -250 −1.5 +195
DraftKings +1.5 -225 −1.5 +185
Fanatics +1.5 -220 −1.5 +175
FanDuel +1.5 -215 −1.5 +172
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 5.5 -120 5.5 +100
BetRivers 5.5 -121 5.5 -103
DraftKings 5.5 -120 5.5 +100
Fanatics 5.5 -120 5.5 +100
FanDuel 5.5 -124 5.5 +102
Caesars 5.5 -122 5.5 -102

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Philadelphia FlyersDetroit Red Wings
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 45.1% 54.9%
Best book price incl. vig 46.5% 56.5%
Kalshi contract price 44.1% 55.9%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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