Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights

All Calgary Flames predictions · All Vegas Golden Knights predictions

NHL · Thursday, October 15, 2026 · 10:10 PM

The model's call
Vegas Golden Knights to win
Model confidence 71.8%
Books consensus 71.8%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Calgary FlamesVegas Golden Knights
BetRivers +245 -305
DraftKings +235 -290
Fanatics +240 -300
FanDuel +245 -310
Caesars +235 -290

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Golden Knights −1.5
priced 53.9% to cover · 4 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 46.8% over · 5 books
Spread by book FlamesGolden Knights
BetRivers +1.5 -108 −1.5 -115
DraftKings +1.5 +105 −1.5 -125
Fanatics +1.5 +110 −1.5 -135
FanDuel +1.5 +110 −1.5 -134
Total by bookOverUnder
BetRivers 6.5 +102 6.5 -127
DraftKings 6.5 +105 6.5 -125
Fanatics 6.5 +105 6.5 -125
FanDuel 6.5 +110 6.5 -134
Caesars 6.5 +105 6.5 -129

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Calgary FlamesVegas Golden Knights
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 28.2% 71.8%
Best book price incl. vig 29.0% 74.4%
Kalshi contract price 27.5% 72.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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