Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers

All Milwaukee Brewers predictions · All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions

MLB · Thursday, October 15, 2026 · 8:00 PM

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 58.5%
Books consensus 58.5%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Milwaukee BrewersLos Angeles Dodgers
BetMGM +135 -160
BetRivers +118 -141
DraftKings +130 -157
ESPN BET +130 -150
Fanatics +130 -155
FanDuel +132 -156
Hard Rock Bet +130 -160
Caesars +135 -159

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Dodgers −1.5
priced 39.4% to cover · 8 books
Total
O/U 7.5
priced 50.3% over · 8 books
Spread by book BrewersDodgers
BetMGM +1.5 -170 −1.5 +140
BetRivers +1.5 -180 −1.5 +145
DraftKings +1.5 -168 −1.5 +138
ESPN BET +1.5 -175 −1.5 +145
Fanatics +1.5 -180 −1.5 +145
FanDuel +1.5 -176 −1.5 +146
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -160 −1.5 +135
Caesars +1.5 -170 −1.5 +141
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 7.5 -115 7.5 -105
BetRivers 7.5 -107 7.5 -115
DraftKings 7.5 -112 7.5 -107
ESPN BET 7.5 -115 7.5 -105
Fanatics 7.5 -115 7.5 -105
FanDuel 7.5 -110 7.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 7.5 -110 7.5 -110
Caesars 7.5 -108 7.5 -109

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Milwaukee BrewersLos Angeles Dodgers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 41.5% 58.5%
Best book price incl. vig 42.6% 58.5%
Kalshi contract price 42.1% 57.9%
Polymarket contract price 41.5% 58.5%
Markets average 41.8% 58.2%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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