Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche

All Pittsburgh Penguins predictions · All Colorado Avalanche predictions

NHL · Friday, October 16, 2026 · 9:10 PM

The model's call
Colorado Avalanche to win
Model confidence 66.4%
Books consensus 66.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Pittsburgh PenguinsColorado Avalanche
BetMGM +180 -220
DraftKings +185 -225
Fanatics +185 -225
FanDuel +184 -225
Caesars +191 -235

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Avalanche −1.5
priced 47.7% to cover · 4 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 52.2% over · 5 books
Spread by book PenguinsAvalanche
BetMGM +1.5 -130 −1.5 +105
DraftKings +1.5 -120 −1.5 +100
Fanatics +1.5 -120 −1.5 +100
FanDuel +1.5 -122 −1.5 +100
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -120 6.5 +100
DraftKings 6.5 -118 6.5 -102
Fanatics 6.5 -120 6.5 +100
FanDuel 6.5 -122 6.5 +100
Caesars 6.5 -120 6.5 -103

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Pittsburgh PenguinsColorado Avalanche
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 33.6% 66.4%
Best book price incl. vig 34.4% 68.8%
Kalshi contract price 34.2% 65.8%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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