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New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals

All New Jersey Devils predictions · All Washington Capitals predictions

NHL · Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 1:08 PM · Final: 2-4

The model's call
Washington Capitals to win
Model confidence 51.7%
Books consensus 51.7%
Result Washington Capitals won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book New Jersey DevilsWashington Capitals
BetMGM -102 -118
BetRivers -105 -114
DraftKings -102 -118
ESPN BET +100 -120
Fanatics -110 -110
FanDuel +100 -120
Hard Rock Bet -105 -125
Novig +102 -106
Caesars -102 -118

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Capitals −1.5
priced 30.8% to cover · 7 books
Washington Capitals covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 45.8% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Under 6.5 (6 scored)
Spread by book DevilsCapitals
BetMGM +1.5 -250 −1.5 +200
BetRivers +1.5 -286 −1.5 +220
DraftKings +1.5 -270 −1.5 +220
ESPN BET +1.5 -260 −1.5 +210
Fanatics +1.5 -270 −1.5 +210
FanDuel +1.5 -265 −1.5 +210
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -300 −1.5 +200
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -115 6 -105
BetRivers 6.5 +106 6.5 -130
DraftKings 6.5 +114 6.5 -135
ESPN BET 6.5 +105 6.5 -125
Fanatics 6.5 +110 6.5 -135
FanDuel 6.5 +110 6.5 -134
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
Caesars 6 -113 6 -107

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue New Jersey DevilsWashington Capitals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 48.3% 51.7%
Best book price incl. vig 49.5% 51.5%
Kalshi contract price 48.5% 51.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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