Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Seattle Kraken at Florida Panthers

All Seattle Kraken predictions · All Florida Panthers predictions

NHL · Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 6:09 PM · Final: 3-8

The model's call
Florida Panthers to win
Model confidence 62.9%
Books consensus 62.9%
Result Florida Panthers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Seattle KrakenFlorida Panthers
BetMGM +155 -190
BetRivers +163 -195
DraftKings +154 -185
ESPN BET +155 -185
Fanatics +155 -190
FanDuel +158 -192
Hard Rock Bet +165 -220
Novig +174 -178
Caesars +162 -197

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Panthers −1.5
priced 40.9% to cover · 7 books
Florida Panthers covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 45.6% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
Over 6.5 (11 scored)
Spread by book KrakenPanthers
BetMGM +1.5 -155 −1.5 +125
BetRivers +1.5 -165 −1.5 +132
DraftKings +1.5 -162 −1.5 +136
ESPN BET +1.5 -155 −1.5 +130
Fanatics +1.5 -165 −1.5 +135
FanDuel +1.5 -176 −1.5 +140
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -165 −1.5 +130
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -118 6 -102
BetRivers 6.5 +104 6.5 -129
DraftKings 6.5 +110 6.5 -130
ESPN BET 5.5 -135 5.5 +115
Fanatics 6.5 +110 6.5 -135
FanDuel 6.5 +110 6.5 -134
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -130 5.5 +105
Caesars 6 -120 6 +100

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Seattle KrakenFlorida Panthers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 37.1% 62.9%
Best book price incl. vig 36.5% 64.0%
Kalshi contract price 35.5% 64.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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