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Buffalo Sabres at Montréal Canadiens

All Buffalo Sabres predictions · All Montréal Canadiens predictions

NHL · Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 7:15 PM · Final: 3-4

The model's call
Montréal Canadiens to win
Model confidence 56.4%
Books consensus 56.4%
Result Montréal Canadiens won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Buffalo SabresMontréal Canadiens
BetMGM +118 -145
BetRivers +123 -143
DraftKings +120 -142
ESPN BET +120 -140
Fanatics +115 -140
FanDuel +122 -146
Hard Rock Bet +115 -150
Novig +130 -133
Caesars +121 -148

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Canadiens −1.5
priced 36.1% to cover · 7 books
Buffalo Sabres covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 50.0% over · 8 books
Over 6.5 (7 scored)
Spread by book SabresCanadiens
BetMGM +1.5 -200 −1.5 +165
BetRivers +1.5 -215 −1.5 +170
DraftKings +1.5 -205 −1.5 +170
ESPN BET +1.5 -200 −1.5 +165
Fanatics +1.5 -205 −1.5 +165
FanDuel +1.5 -188 −1.5 +152
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -210 −1.5 +160
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
BetRivers 6.5 -112 6.5 -112
DraftKings 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
ESPN BET 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
Fanatics 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
FanDuel 6.5 -110 6.5 -112
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -115 6.5 -105
Caesars 6.5 -115 6.5 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Buffalo SabresMontréal Canadiens
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 43.6% 56.4%
Best book price incl. vig 43.5% 57.1%
Kalshi contract price 43.3% 56.7%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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