Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

San Jose Sharks at Detroit Red Wings

All San Jose Sharks predictions · All Detroit Red Wings predictions

NHL · Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 7:08 PM · Final: 3-4

The model's call
Detroit Red Wings to win
Model confidence 57.1%
Books consensus 57.1%
Result Detroit Red Wings won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book San Jose SharksDetroit Red Wings
BetMGM +120 -145
BetRivers +125 -150
DraftKings +124 -148
ESPN BET +125 -145
Fanatics +120 -145
FanDuel +116 -140
Hard Rock Bet +120 -155
Novig +133 -135
Caesars +117 -142

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Red Wings −1.5
priced 35.8% to cover · 7 books
San Jose Sharks covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 47.9% over · 8 books
Over 6.5 (7 scored)
Spread by book SharksRed Wings
BetMGM +1.5 -200 −1.5 +165
BetRivers +1.5 -210 −1.5 +165
DraftKings +1.5 -205 −1.5 +170
ESPN BET +1.5 -210 −1.5 +170
Fanatics +1.5 -215 −1.5 +170
FanDuel +1.5 -205 −1.5 +160
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -210 −1.5 +160
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
BetRivers 6.5 -103 6.5 -121
DraftKings 6.5 -102 6.5 -118
ESPN BET 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
Fanatics 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
FanDuel 6.5 -102 6.5 -120
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
Caesars 6.5 -103 6.5 -121

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue San Jose SharksDetroit Red Wings
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 42.9% 57.1%
Best book price incl. vig 42.9% 57.4%
Kalshi contract price 42.8% 57.2%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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