Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Boston Bruins at Los Angeles Kings

All Boston Bruins predictions · All Los Angeles Kings predictions

NHL · Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 9:09 PM · Final: 4-1

The model's call
Los Angeles Kings to win
Model confidence 57.5%
Books consensus 57.5%
Result Boston Bruins won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Boston BruinsLos Angeles Kings
BetMGM +125 -150
BetRivers +120 -143
DraftKings +130 -155
ESPN BET +120 -140
Fanatics +130 -155
FanDuel +128 -154
Hard Rock Bet +110 -140
Novig +138 -144
Caesars +125 -148

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Kings −1.5
priced 35.5% to cover · 7 books
Boston Bruins covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 52.7% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
Under 5.5 (5 scored)
Spread by book BruinsKings
BetMGM +1.5 -190 −1.5 +155
BetRivers +1.5 -235 −1.5 +180
DraftKings +1.5 -205 −1.5 +170
ESPN BET +1.5 -235 −1.5 +190
Fanatics +1.5 -205 −1.5 +165
FanDuel +1.5 -188 −1.5 +152
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -250 −1.5 +180
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 +100 6 -120
BetRivers 5.5 -129 5.5 +104
DraftKings 5.5 -122 5.5 +102
ESPN BET 5.5 -125 5.5 +105
Fanatics 5.5 -120 5.5 +100
FanDuel 5.5 -124 5.5 +102
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
Caesars 5.5 -124 5.5 +101

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Boston BruinsLos Angeles Kings
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 42.5% 57.5%
Best book price incl. vig 42.0% 58.3%
Kalshi contract price 41.5% 58.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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