Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Edmonton Oilers at Utah Mammoth

All Edmonton Oilers predictions · All Utah Mammoth predictions

NHL · Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 10:10 PM · Final: 6-2

The model's call
Utah Mammoth to win
Model confidence 57.5%
Books consensus 57.5%
Result Edmonton Oilers won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Edmonton OilersUtah Mammoth
BetMGM +125 -155
BetRivers +118 -141
DraftKings +130 -155
ESPN BET +125 -150
Fanatics +125 -150
FanDuel +126 -152
Hard Rock Bet +110 -140
Novig +138 -141
Caesars +125 -148

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Mammoth −1.5
priced 36.3% to cover · 7 books
Edmonton Oilers covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 51.8% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
Over 6.5 (8 scored)
Spread by book OilersMammoth
BetMGM +1.5 -185 −1.5 +150
BetRivers +1.5 -225 −1.5 +175
DraftKings +1.5 -198 −1.5 +164
ESPN BET +1.5 -210 −1.5 +170
Fanatics +1.5 -200 −1.5 +160
FanDuel +1.5 -200 −1.5 +160
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -230 −1.5 +175
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -155 6 +120
BetRivers 6.5 -122 6.5 -103
DraftKings 6.5 -122 6.5 +102
ESPN BET 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
Fanatics 6.5 -120 6.5 +100
FanDuel 6.5 -118 6.5 -104
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
Caesars 6.5 -120 6.5 -103

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Edmonton OilersUtah Mammoth
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 42.5% 57.5%
Best book price incl. vig 42.0% 58.3%
Kalshi contract price 41.9% 58.1%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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