Ball State Cardinals at Bowling Green Falcons
All Ball State Cardinals predictions · All Bowling Green Falcons predictions
College Football · Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 12:03 PM · Final: 32-31
The model's call
Bowling Green Falcons to win
Model confidence 67.6%
Books consensus 67.6%
Result Ball State Cardinals won
model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus
of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself
in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not
an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Ball State Cardinals | Bowling Green Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +195 | -235 |
| BetRivers | +195 | -250 |
| DraftKings | +195 | -238 |
| ESPN BET | +200 | -240 |
| FanDuel | +190 | -235 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +195 | -240 |
| Novig | +208 | -212 |
| Caesars | +200 | -245 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
Spread · closing
Bowling Green −6
priced 49.9% to cover · 3 books, 4 on another number
opened Bowling Green −6.5
Ball State Cardinals covered +6
Total · closing
O/U 46.5
priced 50.0% over · 6 books, 1 on another number
opened 47.5
Over 46.5 (63 scored)
| Spread by book | Ball State | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +6.5 -110 | −6.5 -108 |
| BetRivers | +6 -114 | −6 -109 |
| DraftKings | +6 -108 | −6 -112 |
| ESPN BET | +6.5 -105 | −6.5 -115 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -110 | −6.5 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -105 | −5.5 -115 |
| Caesars | +6 -110 | −6 -109 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 46.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | 46.5 -112 | 46.5 -112 |
| DraftKings | 46.5 -108 | 46.5 -112 |
| ESPN BET | 45.5 -115 | 45.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | 46.5 -114 | 46.5 -106 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 46.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 |
| Caesars | 46.5 -109 | 46.5 -110 |
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