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Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers

MLB · Sunday, July 19, 2026 · 2:11 PM

The model's call
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Model confidence 54.3%
Books consensus 54.3%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Miami MarlinsMilwaukee Brewers
BetMGM +110 -135
BetRivers +115 -136
DraftKings +109 -131
Fanatics +110 -130
FanDuel +110 -130
Hard Rock Bet +105 -125
Caesars +110 -130

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Miami MarlinsMilwaukee Brewers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 45.7% 54.3%
Best book price incl. vig 46.5% 55.6%
Kalshi contract price 44.5% 54.5%
Polymarket contract price 45.5% 54.5%
Markets average 45.0% 54.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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