Florida Gators at Texas Longhorns
All Florida Gators predictions · All Texas Longhorns predictions
College Football · Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 11:58 AM · Final: 27-24
The model's call
Texas Longhorns to win
Model confidence 79.6%
Books consensus 79.6%
Result Florida Gators won
model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus
of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself
in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not
an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Florida Gators | Texas Longhorns |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +375 | -475 |
| BetRivers | +340 | -480 |
| DraftKings | +370 | -485 |
| ESPN BET | +380 | -550 |
| Fanatics | +360 | -475 |
| FanDuel | +375 | -500 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +350 | -475 |
| Novig | +413 | -426 |
| Caesars | +340 | -440 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
Spread · closing
Texas −12.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened Texas −11.5
Florida Gators covered +12.5
Total · closing
O/U 51.5
priced 48.0% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
Under 51.5 (51 scored)
| Spread by book | Florida | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +12 -112 | −12 -118 |
| BetRivers | +12 -113 | −12 -110 |
| DraftKings | +12.5 -110 | −12.5 -110 |
| ESPN BET | +12.5 -110 | −12.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | +12.5 -110 | −12.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | +12.5 -110 | −12.5 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +11.5 -105 | −11.5 -115 |
| Caesars | +12.5 -113 | −12.5 -107 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 50.5 -118 | 50.5 -102 |
| BetRivers | 51.5 -112 | 51.5 -112 |
| DraftKings | 51.5 -102 | 51.5 -118 |
| ESPN BET | 51.5 +100 | 51.5 -120 |
| Fanatics | 51 -110 | 51 -110 |
| FanDuel | 50.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 51.5 +100 | 51.5 -120 |
| Caesars | 51 -108 | 51 -112 |
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