Mississippi State Bulldogs at LSU Tigers
All Mississippi State Bulldogs predictions · All LSU Tigers predictions
College Football · Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 12:08 PM · Final: 0-31
The model's call
LSU Tigers to win
Model confidence 87.2%
Books consensus 87.2%
Result LSU Tigers won
model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus
of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself
in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not
an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Mississippi State Bulldogs | LSU Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +650 | -900 |
| BetRivers | +650 | -1115 |
| DraftKings | +625 | -950 |
| ESPN BET | +700 | -1200 |
| Fanatics | +650 | -950 |
| FanDuel | +590 | -900 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +650 | -1100 |
| Novig | +700 | -770 |
| Caesars | +625 | -950 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
Spread · closing
LSU −17.5
priced 50.1% to cover · 6 books, 2 on another number
LSU Tigers covered −17.5
Total · closing
O/U 56.5
priced 49.0% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 55.5
Under 56.5 (31 scored)
| Spread by book | Mississippi State | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +17.5 -108 | −17.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | +18 -114 | −18 -109 |
| DraftKings | +17.5 -108 | −17.5 -112 |
| ESPN BET | +17.5 -110 | −17.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | +18 -110 | −18 -110 |
| FanDuel | +17.5 -110 | −17.5 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +17.5 -105 | −17.5 -115 |
| Caesars | +17.5 -110 | −17.5 -109 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 56.5 -110 | 56.5 -108 |
| BetRivers | 55.5 -114 | 55.5 -109 |
| DraftKings | 56.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 |
| ESPN BET | 56.5 -105 | 56.5 -115 |
| Fanatics | 56 -115 | 56 -105 |
| FanDuel | 56.5 -105 | 56.5 -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 55.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 |
| Caesars | 56.5 -106 | 56.5 -115 |
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