Northwestern Wildcats at Michigan State Spartans
All Northwestern Wildcats predictions · All Michigan State Spartans predictions
College Football · Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 12:00 PM · Final: 24-21
The model's call
Northwestern Wildcats to win
Model confidence 72.3%
Books consensus 72.3%
Result Northwestern Wildcats won
model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus
of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself
in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not
an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Northwestern Wildcats | Michigan State Spartans |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -300 | +240 |
| BetRivers | -345 | +260 |
| DraftKings | -298 | +240 |
| ESPN BET | -300 | +250 |
| Fanatics | -310 | +250 |
| FanDuel | -310 | +245 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -300 | +240 |
| Novig | -285 | +270 |
| Caesars | -295 | +240 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
Spread · closing
Northwestern −7.5
priced 48.6% to cover · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened Northwestern −7
Michigan State Spartans covered +7.5
Total · closing
O/U 49.5
priced 50.0% over · 8 books
Under 49.5 (45 scored)
| Spread by book | Northwestern | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −7 -120 | +7 -108 |
| BetRivers | −7 -114 | +7 -109 |
| DraftKings | −7 -118 | +7 -102 |
| ESPN BET | −7.5 +100 | +7.5 -120 |
| Fanatics | −7.5 -105 | +7.5 -115 |
| FanDuel | −7.5 -105 | +7.5 -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −7.5 +100 | +7.5 -120 |
| Caesars | −7.5 -104 | +7.5 -117 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 49.5 -112 | 49.5 -105 |
| BetRivers | 49.5 -110 | 49.5 -113 |
| DraftKings | 49.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 |
| ESPN BET | 49.5 -105 | 49.5 -115 |
| Fanatics | 49.5 -115 | 49.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | 49.5 -114 | 49.5 -106 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 49.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 |
| Caesars | 49.5 -108 | 49.5 -112 |
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