Virginia Cavaliers at SMU Mustangs
All Virginia Cavaliers predictions · All SMU Mustangs predictions
College Football · Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 12:00 PM · Final: 13-23
The model's call
SMU Mustangs to win
Model confidence 75.5%
Books consensus 75.5%
Result SMU Mustangs won
model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus
of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself
in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not
an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Virginia Cavaliers | SMU Mustangs |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +290 | -350 |
| BetRivers | +290 | -385 |
| DraftKings | +285 | -360 |
| ESPN BET | +290 | -380 |
| Fanatics | +290 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +290 | -375 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +300 | -375 |
| Novig | +317 | -326 |
| Caesars | +280 | -360 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
Spread · closing
SMU −9.5
priced 51.1% to cover · 5 books, 3 on another number
SMU Mustangs covered −9.5
Total · closing
O/U 51.5
priced 50.0% over · 8 books
Under 51.5 (36 scored)
| Spread by book | Virginia | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +9.5 -108 | −9.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | +10 -117 | −10 -107 |
| DraftKings | +10 -112 | −10 -108 |
| ESPN BET | +10.5 -115 | −10.5 -105 |
| Fanatics | +9.5 -105 | −9.5 -115 |
| FanDuel | +9.5 -105 | −9.5 -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +9.5 -105 | −9.5 -115 |
| Caesars | +9.5 -106 | −9.5 -114 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 51.5 -110 | 51.5 -108 |
| BetRivers | 51.5 -112 | 51.5 -112 |
| DraftKings | 51.5 -115 | 51.5 -105 |
| ESPN BET | 51.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | 51.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | 51.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 51.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 |
| Caesars | 51.5 -114 | 51.5 -106 |
Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts
involve risk; this is not investment advice.