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San Diego Padres at Kansas City Royals

MLB · Sunday, July 19, 2026 · 2:11 PM

The model's call
Kansas City Royals to win
Model confidence 53.8%
Books consensus 53.8%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book San Diego PadresKansas City Royals
BetMGM +105 -130
BetRivers +108 -127
DraftKings +107 -129
Fanatics +105 -125
FanDuel +114 -134
Hard Rock Bet +110 -130
Caesars +105 -125

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue San Diego PadresKansas City Royals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 46.2% 53.8%
Best book price incl. vig 46.7% 55.6%
Kalshi contract price 45.5% 53.5%
Polymarket contract price 45.5% 54.5%
Markets average 45.5% 54.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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